Mustafa Qadri

FOR well on three decades, Pakistan’s military establishment has been sympathetic to Islamist militancy, causing many to doubt its bona fides in the war against the Taliban, now in its ninth year.

But recent developments in this war suggest that military planners have finally realised the risks of this most dangerous of relationships. Army chief Ashfaq Kayani recently noted that a Taliban society at home and in Afghanistan was not in Pakistan’s interests. In the past, Pakistan supported the Taliban in Afghanistan and its own tribal areas in a quest to achieve “strategic depth” against rival India. Now, Kayani concedes, a stable and friendly Afghanistan is sufficient strategic depth for Pakistan.

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Today I was interviewed by Phillip Adams on Radio National Australia about Pakistan’s changing relationship with the Taliban. You can listen and download the interview here.

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With the recent capture of three high profile Taliban commanders, is Pakistan’s relationship to the insurgency changing, asks Mustafa Qadri

In what appears to be a major shift in the war against the Taliban, a joint raid by Pakistani and American security forces has captured the insurgents’ most senior military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in the Pakistani port city of Karachi.

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With the capture or murder of senior leaders and with massive US-led operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it appears the Taliban’s days are numbered.

The most spectacular evidence apparently in support of this claim is the capture last week of the senior most military commander of Taliban forces in Afghanistan, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. Only weeks earlier, Pakistan authorities revealed that Hakeemullah Mehsud, head of the Pakistan Taliban, succumbed to injuries from a US drone strike in the tribal areas.

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The former president has hinted at a return to Pakistani politics. Worryingly, it could be more than just a pipe dream.

Mustafa Qadri
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 18 February 2010 18.30 GMT

At no point do world leaders look more diminished than after leaving office, and Pakistan’s former president and military dictator Pervez Musharraf is no exception. So when he addressed a London audience this week, it was perhaps ironic that much of what he said was a reminder that little has changed in the way the west relates to the “AfPak” region.

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As US-led forces engage in a major offensive in Afghanistan’s Helmand Province, commentators in Pakistan are still taking stock of the London conference and what it could mean for the role their country plays in their neighbour’s stability. Mustafa Qadri reports that many believe the road to such stability and security will inevitably run through Pakistan–and to the Taliban.

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Negotiating with the Taliban is too little, too late – western allies need to fix the socioeconomic mess started long before 9/11

Mustafa Qadri
guardian.co.uk, Monday 8 February 2010 08.00 GMT

Memory spans are short in modern politics, but even by those standards the relative ease with which the discourse on Afghanistan has shifted from fighting the Taliban to negotiating with them is remarkable.

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Getting out of Afghanistan won’t be cheap. Mustafa Qadri takes a look at the West’s new hope for a solution to its Afghanistan problem

After much anticipation, Western leaders have finally put some meat on their previously bare-bones proposals for stabilising Afghanistan over the next few years. The short story is that President Obama is sticking to the plan he outlined in his speech at West Point last year, whereby he intends to hand responsibility for the country’s governance and security back to the Afghan authorities over a five-year period starting from 2011.

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Barack Obama’s surge in Afghanistan worries Pakistan – when the US leaves, it will still have to deal with the Taliban

Mustafa Qadri
guardian.co.uk, Friday 11 December 2009 16:00 GMT

There is more to President Obama’s policy shift in central Asia than more boots in Afghanistan. For Pakistan it represents an escalation of US drone strikes in the tribal areas and continued pressure on its army to immediately engage the Taliban and al-Qaida despite the practical complexities of the task.

The fundamental problem for Pakistan is that Obama’s acceleration of the war against the Taliban has been calculated largely on the basis of domestic US political demands and not those of the region, let alone Pakistan. Already under intense pressure at home from the financial crisis and the unpopularity of the US presence in Afghanistan, Obama must deliver some semblance of victory before he bids for a second term as commander-in-chief in 2012.

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A troop surge AND a withdrawal by July 2011? Despite the fuss, Obama’s Afghanistan speech marks very little in the way of new policy, writes Mustafa Qadri

“Unlike Vietnam, we are not facing a broad-based popular insurgency.” Those were President Obama’s confident words as he announced a major US troop surge into Afghanistan earlier this week.

The US may have entered Afghanistan to clean out what was believed to be the key haven for the international terrorist network known as al Qaeda. But in the intervening eight years, America’s main opponents in the deserts and towns of Afghanistan have been the young men of rural Kandahar, Uruzgan, Helmand and so many other areas fighting not for global jihad but for independence from foreign interference. There are key differences between the war in Afghanistan and that in Vietnam — but a lack of a broad-based popular insurgency is not one of them.

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The proposed truth and reconciliation commission is a fine idea. But a lack of historical distance will make it politically thorny

Grievance is at the heart of Pakistani politics. Almost all of the elites that dominate political life here have faced the deprivations – poverty, harassment, imprisonment or exile – experienced by the ordinary citizen at some point in their lives. When at the height of their strength, the powerful always invoke the myriad injustices that plague the common citizen to rally popular support.

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Few people take more risks than the locals who help foreign correspondents in conflict zones, writes Mustafa Qadri. So why don’t the Western media give credit to their fixers?

Investigative journalism can be a dangerous profession because, by its very nature, it seeks to uncover the lies and scandals that someone, somewhere, is trying to suppress. As work descriptions go, few civilians face as many life-threatening situations as those who aid foreign investigative reporters in conflict zones.

Generally known in the profession as “fixers” — but very often respected local journalists in their own right — these brave reporters are asked to arrange anything and everything required by a foreign media outlet: from interviews with hostile governments and militants in hiding, to transportation and accommodation. They risk their lives not only by working in dangerous situations but by virtue of fact that, being citizens of developing nations, the western media outlets that employ them generally place little value on their lives.

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If the West needed a credible election in Afghanistan to help prove that its war there is a good idea, it sure didn’t get it, writes Mustafa Qadri

In the wake of last week’s seriously flawed election in Afghanistan, NATO staff have expressed their “desperation” to pull out of the country.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an analyst with close contacts inside NATO headquarters in Brussels cited plunging domestic support within member countries for the war, as well as the worsening violence inside Afghanistan as factors contributing to their desire to end military involvement.

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The latest pieces in America’s Afghanistan jigsaw puzzle have started falling into place. Indeed, parts of the picture had already begun to emerge earlier this year, with US President Barack Obama making good on his election campaign promise to increase the US troop presence from 30,000 to 50,000. He then replaced the traditionalist Gen. David McKiernan with the counter-insurgency expert Gen. Stanley McChrystal as effective military commander of all Afghan national and foreign forces in Afghanistan.

In addition, there have been the controversial missile strikes against suspected Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders. Although the strikes have been mainly focused on Pakistan, they have targeted insurgents operating in Afghanistan - a clear signal the United States is happy to escalate the war in the territory of key ally Pakistan.

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With the death of another Australian soldier in Afghanistan this week, what are the prospects for peace in the region? Mustafa Qadri reviews political and strategic developments

As the Australian Defence Force mourns its 11th soldier to die in Afghanistan, Private Benjamin Ranaudo, and more than 400 additional troops prepare to travel to the region, many Australians are asking what the future of the conflict holds.

After much anticipation, the United States has finally started to reveal its political and military strategy in the country.

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Mustafa Qadri: Stuck between India and the Taliban
The idea that Pakistan is inherently dangerous is a mantra used by those who ignore history and avoid the complicated reality
According to Kapil Komireddi in these very pages, the demise of Pakistan is “inevitable” because it has since foundation been a source of division and extremism. [...]

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The following report for The Guardian, published today, looks at the recent meetings between the Presidents of the United States, Afghanistan and Pakistan in Washington D.C. and the risks to civilians caught up in the war with the Taliban:

‘Collateral damage’ in AfPak hurts the US too

The bombardment of civilians in Afghanistan undermines the security credentials of western forces in the region

o Mustafa Qadri
o guardian.co.uk, Friday 8 May 2009 16.30 BST

The timing may have been a disaster for Washington, but for villagers in Afghanistan’s south it was far worse. A day after a US bombing killed up to 120 civilians in Afghanistan’s southern Farah province, President Obama asked the visiting presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan, Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari, to step up their attacks on Taliban and al-Qaida militants.

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Despite Afghanistan’s recent return to the spotlight, few among the public realize the full extent of the US’s historical meddling in Afghanistan. Sadly, many Americans will believe the version of events that were popularized by George Crile’s book-turned-Hollywood film, Charlie Wilson’s War.

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My analysis of the Obama Administration’s new AfPak policy for the Common Grounds News Service was published today:

Obama’s new “AfPak” strategy – the view from Pakistan
by Mustafa Qadri

30 April 2009

Karachi, Pakistan - People with a hammer only see nails. This well-worn maxim aptly describes the United States’ relationship with Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past several decades. As early as 1954, the United States identified the country as a bulwark against regional encroachment by the Soviet Union when Pakistan received its first substantial tranche of American military and economic aid.

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My assessment of the Obama Administration’s newly announced AfPak policy was published in The Guardian today:

Obama’s charm offensive

Is Barack Obama’s change of strategy – switching focus from Iraq to Afghanistan – a real break with the past?

It was easy to be cynical listening to Barack Obama speak about the “new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan” last Friday. Apart from a vast improvement in elocution, at first glance it was difficult to distinguish his rhetoric from that of his predecessor, George Bush.

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On 3 April I was interviewed on the dilemmas of keeping NATO forces supplied in Afghanistan on Pacifica Radio New York. Audio available here.

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My analysis of NATO’s supply conundrum in Afghanistan was published on the Foreign Policy in Focus website today:

NATO’s Frayed Supply Line

Mustafa Qadri | April 1, 2009

There was much fanfare as President Barack Obama announced the eagerly anticipated “AfPak” policy review, what the White House terms is “a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.” Many have argued, however, that the new AfPak policy is very much a continuation of the old policy with a few tactical grafts from the occupation of Iraq.

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At an international conference on Afghanistan at The Hague, in the Netherlands, the Iranian delegate, Mohammad Mehdi Akhundzadeh, responded positively to Barack Obama’s new strategy for winning the war against the Taliban.

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Here is my analysis of the Obama Administration’s new ‘AfPak’ policy for newmatilda.com:

Not All Terrorists Are The Same

Obama’s new strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan is much more nuanced than Bush’s “war on terror”, writes Mustafa Qadri. As a starting point, it recognises that al Qaeda and the Taliban are distinct groups

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My latest column for The Guardian is on the quandaries of supplying NATO forces in Afghanistan:

NATO’s soft underbelly

Nato operations in Afghanistan depend on a precarious international supply system – and the Taliban have realised it

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There’s nothing new in Barack Obama’s foreign policy - but the way it is knitted together offers hope…
See also TIME magazine’s appraisal:
Did George Bush leave one of his old speeches in the Resolute Desk? As President Obama unveiled his Afghanistan-Pakistan policy Friday, it was hard to miss the echoes of his predecessor’s “surge” strategy in [...]

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I am going to miss Kabul. I have grown to love this country in a way I never thought I would. Afghanistan is like a teenage boy. Infuriating, recalcitrant, messy, always destroying things and disappointing hopes. But you love him anyway.

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A senior UN official says it will be nearly impossible to hold credible elections in Afghanistan in April, as ordered by President Karzai.

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The failures of this government and its inability to defend the country’s interests or its population from drones or terrorist attacks are paving the way for the return of the army to power as a way of avoiding a serious split within its own ranks. All that is awaited is a green light from the [...]

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It was hoped that t he election of Barack Obama to the presidency of the United States would bring a change of course to the beleaguered US effort in Afghanistan. But word that representatives of the Taliban and the infamous Afghan drug trafficker and extremist Gulbuddin Hekmatyar might be on the president’s list of possible [...]

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U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Friday that Washington could accept a political agreement between the Afghan government and Taliban rebels along the lines of a truce in neighboring Pakistan.

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Here, published in NewMatilda.com today, is an analysis of the recent Taliban suicide attack on Kabul and the build of US troops in the country.

“It’s Like Fighting Quick Sand”

As Obama commits another 17,000 US troops to the flagging US war effort in Afghanistan, a commando-style attack by the Taliban in Kabul serves as a reminder of the challenges that lie ahead, writes Mustafa Qadri

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The transparency group Wikileaks has issued a press release regarding a confidential NATO report that details the dramatic increase in civillians deaths, the rise in civil disorer and the lack of basic health care and education in Afghanistan.
(Thanks to Reuben)

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The credibility of the international mission in Afghanistan was dealt a blow yesterday with the announcement that presidential elections have been put back by three months.

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Soviet veterans marking 20 years since their defeat in Afghanistan warned the United States it would never truly control the country, citing bitter memories of a fiercely proud people and unforgiving landscape.

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A gunfight between Australian forces and Taliban fighters in southern Afghanistan killed five children who were caught in the crossfire, the Australian Defense Ministry said Friday.

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Britain appointed its own Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan and named Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, currently its Ambassador to Afghanistan, for the post on the day US President Obama’s Special Representative for the two countries arrived in Islamabad.
You may recall that Cowper-Coles was the British diplomat who got into a bit of hot water for [...]

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Famed for negotiating the 1995 Dayton accord that ended the war in Bosnia, Holbrooke is a relative newcomer to South Asian politics. Before two private visits since 2006, Holbrooke had only traveled to Afghanistan once, as a backpacker in 1971.

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Pakistan advised President Barack Obama’s special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan on Tuesday to reach out to reconcilable elements of the Taliban movement as part of a strategy for peace in the region.

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And I gave an example of the fact that USAID had built forty-one courthouses at a cost of over $200 million, and the day the US ambassador went to the minister of justice to sort of hand over these courthouses, the minister of justice knew nothing about it and said, “Well, that’s very nice, that’s [...]

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My latest piece, on the disruptions to NATO supplies through Pakistan, was published at NewMatilda.com today:

THE TALIBAN’S LUCRATIVE LINE IN LOGISTICS

The lifeline to the war in Afghanistan is under threat, writes Mustafa Qadri, as trucking companies are forced to bribe militants to get supplies in to the troubled region…

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My latest article, on US policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan under President Obama, was published in NewMatilda.com today:

From War on Terror to Plain Old War

Early signs suggest an escalation of the Bush administration’s policies on Afghanistan and Pakistan under the new President, writes Mustafa Qadri

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Across much of the North-West Frontier Province—around a fifth of Pakistan—women have now been forced to wear the burqa, music has been silenced, barbershops are forbidden to shave beards, and over 140 girls’ schools have been blown up or burned down. In the provincial capital of Peshawar, a significant proportion of the city’s elite, along [...]

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In fact, the Times’ Sanger reports that a top George W Bush administration official expressed his fears to him that “some groups could try to provoke a confrontation between Pakistan and India in the hope that the Pakistani military would transport tactical nuclear weapons closer to the front lines, where they [...]

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According to studies cited by the Afghan health ministry an astonishing 66% of Afghans suffer mental health problems.

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Recently, the International Monetary Fund approved a 23-month US$7.6 billion bailout program for Pakistan. “American military officials played a crucial role in this approval,” commented the executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Dr Farrukh Saleem, to Asia Times Online. “The purpose is to keep pace with [...]

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Mr Baheen said the Afghan government was committed to establishing rule of law. However, its efforts were being undermined as “the international community, including some powerful Nato member countries, has their own favourite warlords” who they back against the Karzai government, he charged.

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Businessman Ata-u-llah expressed the distrust of the Western intervention that is widespread in Afghanistan.
“There will be no change because infidel countries always have the same politics against Muslim countries and their target is to give a bad name to Islam and extend Christianity and Judaism,” he said.

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Al Qaeda leaders no longer feel safe in Afghan-Pakistan border areas, where they face heavy U.S. and Pakistani pressure and their local welcome has worn out, CIA chief Michael Hayden said on Thursday.

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Afghan and Pakistani officers at the center were barred from talking to a reporter during a recent visit. But a glance around the room showed several of them primarily engaged in watching a wrestling match on one of the big TV screens and playing computer solitaire. Their U.S. counterparts, meanwhile, sorted through e-mails from the [...]

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These groups have given sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda forces that fled Afghanistan after the U.S. invasion. They now fight alongside them against the United States and its allies in Afghanistan. They too consider themselves Pakistani nationalists. In the midst of the crisis triggered by the attacks on Bombay, Baitullah Masud, the leader [...]

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The problems started after September 11, when the US forced the then-military government of president General Pervez Musharraf to abandon the Taliban. Up to 2001, Afghanistan had virtually been a fifth Pakistani province for which Pakistan arranged day-to-day expenditures. Even the communications network was run by the Pakistan Telecommunication Corporation Limited. [...]

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Two major events are likely to mark the beginning of 2009 and decide the new rules of war and peace in the region. In Pakistan, the foremost is curtailing the powerful military dominated intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and the second is the unveiling of a new strategy in Afghanistan. [...]

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Afghanistan and Pakistan Take Centre Stage
Called ‘the central front’ by Barack Obama, Pakistan and Afghanistan have endured another year of turmoil, writes Mustafa Qadri.
My latest piece for The Diplomat magazine is a review of the political and security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan this year. It is available on subscription from their website here.

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Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that between 20,000 and 30,000 additional U.S. troops could be sent to Afghanistan to bolster the 31,000 already there.

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The following article, a year in review of the countries I’ve covered in 2008, was published in NewMatilda.com today:

Silver Linings in Short Supply

From the Holy Land to South Asia, violence remained a constant in 2008, reports Mustafa Qadri. Will elections in Palestine and Israel – and the inauguration of Obama – promote dialogue or further violence?

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The United Nations said Wednesday it will double the budget of its Afghan mission next year, taking on hundreds of new staff and opening more offices to meet more “complex” challenges.

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The U.S. military will soon launch a pilot program to raise local militias, paid by the Pentagon, in an effort to improve security throughout the country.

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The recent ambush took place at the entrance to the pass. U.S. officials say the attackers seized two Humvees and a water truck. Several trucks carrying wheat for the World Food Program were also hijacked.

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Reviewing history’s arcs, Ayub seems to have given up on the current generation of Afghan leaders, dismissing them as “thieves, murderers and criminals” whose corruption and inefficiency has allowed the Taliban to survive and prosper. Instead she reserves her sorrow for the next generation. “Young people are not convinced that there is a secure future [...]

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“That means bringing in the neighbouring countries: Iran, India, and the five Central Asian states, and then resolving some of these regional problems — like the disputes between India and Pakistan, between Iran and the Americans, between Afghanistan and Pakistan.”

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Afghanistan’s dying mothers
By Carol Mann
First Published: October 31, 2008
KABUL: Today in Badakhshan, Afghanistan, for every 100,000 births, 6,500 young mothers die. This is a world record, unrivaled anywhere. In other parts of Afghanistan, too, the rates of maternal mortality continue to be among the highest in the world.
Roughly 75% of Afghan newborns that die do [...]

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The following article, on a peaceful resolution of the war with the Taliban in Afghanistan, was published in today’s NewMatilda.com:

31 Oct 2008

Is It Time to Make Peace With The Taliban?
The once unthinkable is quietly becoming thinkable in Afghanistan, writes Mustafa Qadri

“You are with us, or you are with the terrorists,” declaimed President George Bush in his now infamous speech to Congress following the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.

Now, the US is thinking of talking to the terrorists.

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The U.S. is actively considering talks with elements of the Taliban, the armed Islamist group that once ruled Afghanistan and sheltered al Qaeda, in a major policy shift that would have been unthinkable a few months ago.

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The following article was published in the Guardian newspaper’s ‘Comment is Free’ website today:

Do the tribes really need more guns?

Arming tribal militias to fight the Taliban in Pakistan doesn’t solve the underlying problem

[Wednesday October 29 2008 21.00 GMT]

It’s back to the future with Pakistan’s latest response to the Taliban insurgency. With endorsement and limited training from the US, and Chinese-manufactured weapons, Pakistan will arm tribal militias, or lashkars, to fight the Taliban.

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“We need to pressure the Afghan government and the international community to find a solution without using guns.”

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Taliban leader Mullah Omar promised at the 11th hour in those fateful days from his hideout in Kandahar via Pakistani intermediaries - that, yes, he would verifiably sequester his movement from al-Qaeda and ask Osama bin Laden to leave Afghan soil, provided the US acceded to his longstanding request to accord recognition to his regime [...]

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“A strategy destined to fail?” Guardian: Comment is Free 9 October 2008

A major new intelligence estimate by US defence establishment casts doubt on military strategy in Afghanistan.

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Statement by His Excellency Hamid Karzai President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan At the 15th Summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Colombo, Sri Lanka
02 August 2008

Please Check Against Delivery
Your Excellency President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Excellencies Heads of State and Government, Distinguished Delegates, ladies and gentlemen, I thank you, Mr Chairman, [...]

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